A mere two months prior that the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As the in-form star swept in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a rather hard proposition to answer. History, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero faced the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
